Opta’s supercomputer has released its first predictions for this season’s Champions League, which gets underway next week, and the outlook is not particularly encouraging for the Spanish clubs.
Of the five Spanish teams competing in this season’s tournament, two — Real Betis and Villarreal — are predicted to be eliminated during the League Phase, while Atlético Madrid are expected to narrowly avoid an early exit.
According to the projections, Atlético would finish 22nd among the 24 teams advancing from the League Phase. Their low position would mean facing a potentially difficult opponent in the knockout play-offs.
Barcelona and Real Madrid are expected to fare much better. Opta’s supercomputer predicts that Barcelona will finish fourth, while Real Madrid are projected to come seventh. Both would therefore qualify directly for the Champions League round of 16, avoiding the additional knockout play-off.
Barcelona are also given a 14.41% chance of reaching the final, compared with 10.39% for Real Madrid.
The predicted top eight in the League Phase are Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Manchester City, Barcelona, Liverpool, Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid and Inter, in that order.
Two clear favorites
Bayern Munich and Arsenal are the leading contenders to win the competition, according to Opta’s projections.
Arsenal are given a 21.18% chance of lifting the Champions League trophy, narrowly ahead of Bayern Munich at 19.90%. Manchester City are third with a 12.03% chance.
Among the Spanish clubs, Barcelona have the best odds of winning the tournament at 6.97%, followed by Real Madrid at 5.13%.
Atlético Madrid are given just a 0.60% chance of becoming champions, while Villarreal stand at 0.26% and Real Betis at 0.17%.
A third straight title looks unlikely
The predictions are also not particularly favorable for defending champions Paris Saint-Germain.
PSG have won the last two editions of the Champions League and are aiming to become only the second club in history to win the competition three years in a row, after Real Madrid achieved the feat.
However, Opta’s supercomputer gives the French side just a 7.73% chance of lifting the trophy again this season.
