The end of Pep Guardiola’s incredible reign at Manchester City was meant to come last summer.
For some time, it had been the manager’s plan to leave in summer of 2025 – as he had achieved everything he wanted to do in England.
But in the autumn before that, things had started to go badly wrong at the Etihad – and as usual, Pep had seen it coming.
He had predicted a tough start to the season after leading his team to four straight titles in a row – although for a while it looked like his players might prove him wrong.
However they lost four straight games in the lead up to the November international break and Guardiola feared it was about to get worse.
Pep took advantage of the two week break and headed off for some sunshine – just as he always does – to get away from the dreary Manchester weather.
While in the Middle East, he had a summit meeting with chairman Khaldoon al Mubarak, who has become a trusted friend during his stay in England.
The Etihad chief has referenced the persuasive powers of the Abu Dhabi businessman before – and it did not take him long to work his magic again.
Together, they realised the squad which had made history by winning the treble and four Prem titles in a row had reached the end of the road.
A major squad overhaul was required – and Khaldoon wanted his mate to oversee it.
Guardiola knew he could not walk out on a club he has grown to love when they needed him most.
It did not take long for a new two year contract to be agreed – and Pep admitted then he had performed something of a U-turn.
He said at the time: “Since the beginning of this season, I’ve been thinking a lot – I thought this was the last season.
“But I felt I could not leave now – simple as that.”
Crucially though, his new contract, which runs until summer 2027, was always believed to include a break clause for the end of this season.
Deep down Pep always planned to use it. – as long as his new look squad, revamped to the tune of £430 million over the last 18 months, was performing as he hoped they would.
The new contract ‘bounce’ didn’t happen – City won just one of their next nine matches in all competitions.
But once the new signings began to arrive, things picked up.
New players were given no assurances about how long the boss would be staying – but were told by the man himself that they were joining a great club, no matter who is in the dug-out.
And over the past few months, he has been delighted with what he has seen – his team won both domestic cups and are still in the title race going into the final week.
He headed off to sunnier climes again at the end of March – hours after leading City to Carabao Cup glory – and realised during that break that his work here was done.
Ten years of pouring his heart and soul into his club have taken their toll – he needs a break.
He is only 55 but some even wonder if he will ever take another club job – his dream of trying international management is well known.
Yet since he returned to work in early April, he has kept his exit plans a closely guarded secret.
He was worried that any kind of announcement about his future could de-rail his team’s promising season.
His old rival Jurgen Klopp revealed in January 2024 he would be leaving Anfield at the end of that season – and then saw their campaign completely unravel.
He has gone on to lead City to League Cup and FA Cup victories this seasonCredit: PA
Pep was determined not to have the same situation, particularly with silverware up for grabs.
So he has skilfully dodged the countless questions that came his way – always hiding behind the one year he has left on his deal.
Staff around the club have suspected for a while that the end was coming but had seen this movie before.
As we know, he is prone to a U-turn and has changed his mind before. Had he done so one more time, the club and in particular Khaldoon would have been delighted.
The feeling has always been the news would be kept under wraps until City were mathematically out of the title race.
In an ideal world, Pep wanted to tell the fans himself on what is certain to be an emotional final day of the season at the Etihad on Sunday.
But in the end, the news City supporters dreaded drifted out and while we still wait for confirmation there have been no denials either.
The fact he could end up missing out on the title to his old apprentice Mikel Arteta would surely hurt his pride to some extent.
He will also be curious to see whether the new-look squad he has helped to assemble can build on their encouraging start.
Yet when he is sitting on the beach in his favourite holiday destination the Maldives this summer, he will no doubt learn to live with it.
His legacy is secured – now they just need a fitting send-off.
